Following an impressive rebound season with the New York Mets in 2024, Luis Severino is reportedly set to decline the team’s $21.05 million qualifying offer and test the free-agent market. This decision reflects confidence in his ability to secure a multi-year deal, despite a history of injuries that previously cast doubts on his durability.

Severino’s Expected Move in Free Agency

According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Severino is not expected to accept the offer ahead of the 4 PM ET deadline on Tuesday. The Mets extended qualifying offers to three players: Severino, Pete Alonso, and Sean Manaea. While Severino was initially seen as the most likely candidate to accept due to his injury-prone past, his resurgence in 2024 has changed that narrative.

The 30-year-old pitcher is reportedly aiming for a multi-year contract that capitalizes on his improved performance this season. Declining the qualifying offer would also net the Mets a compensatory draft pick should Severino sign with another team.

A Comeback Season with the Mets

After signing a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets in December 2023, Severino turned in a strong performance in 2024. This came on the heels of his worst season with the New York Yankees in 2023, where he posted a dismal 6.65 ERA over 19 starts. However, his 2024 stats told a different story:

• 31 starts
• 182 innings pitched
• 3.91 ERA
• 3.24 ERA in three postseason starts

These numbers highlight his reliability as a starter and his ability to perform under pressure, making him an attractive option for teams seeking rotation help.

Free Agency Prospects

While Severino’s durability remains a concern, particularly with his history of injuries, his strong showing in 2024 positions him well for a solid payday. MLB Trade Rumors projects a three-year, $51 million contract in free agency. This would allow Severino to lock in long-term financial security while still being a cost-effective option for teams unwilling to commit to longer-term, higher-value contracts for more elite pitchers.

However, Severino’s strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine innings in 2024—consistent with his career-low in 2023—may raise questions about his long-term effectiveness. His whiff rate and ability to miss bats also rank in the lower tiers, suggesting that his success may rely more on command and pitching to contact rather than overpowering hitters.

Severino’s decision to decline the qualifying offer appears calculated, as he seeks to maximize his earnings while still offering teams a proven postseason performer. For the Mets, his departure would open opportunities to reshape their rotation, with the added benefit of gaining a compensatory draft pick. This offseason will be critical for Severino as he aims to secure his place in a competitive pitching market.